Title:
COMPUTER-IMPLEMENTED METHOD FOR THE PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF A PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF A COMPONENT, A DATA PROCESSING SYSTEM, A COMPUTER PROGRAM PRODUCT AND A COMPUTER-READABLE STORAGE MEDIUM
Document Type and Number:
WIPO Patent Application WO/2020/089402
Kind Code:
A3
Abstract:
The invention relates to a computer-implemented method (100) for probabilistic quantification of probability of failure PoF(n) of a component, especially a gas turbine component, which during operation is subjected to cyclic stress, wherein the component is divided virtually in one or more domains, the method comprising the steps of: providing or determining (104) for at least one domain, preferably for each domain, a domain probability density function PDFCI
i for crack initiation and providing or determining (106) for the considered domains a domain probability density function PDFCPF
I for subsequent crack propagation induced failure. For providing an improved method for probabilistic quantification of a probability of failure of a component, especially a gas turbine component, designated for being subjected to cyclic stress, it is proposed to determine for each considered domain a combined domain cumulative distribution function for failure CDFFail
i or its probability density function PDFFail
i by convoluting either both the considered domain probability density functions PDFCI
i for crack initiation induced failure and the respective domain probability density function PDFCPF
i for subsequent crack propagation induced failure, or their integral function CDFCI
i and CDFCPF
i. Alternatively, numerical methods for said component failure probabilities are described including domain-based Monte-Carlo schemes.
Inventors:
RADAELLI FRANCESCO (DE)
AMANN CHRISTIAN (DE)
KADAU KAI (US)
SCHMITZ SEBASTIAN (DE)
VÖSE MARKUS (DE)
AMANN CHRISTIAN (DE)
KADAU KAI (US)
SCHMITZ SEBASTIAN (DE)
VÖSE MARKUS (DE)
Application Number:
PCT/EP2019/079850
Publication Date:
September 17, 2020
Filing Date:
October 31, 2019
Export Citation:
Assignee:
SIEMENS AG (DE)
International Classes:
G06F30/20; G06F111/08; G06F119/02
Domestic Patent References:
| WO2016191068A1 | 2016-12-01 |
Other References:
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DATABASE INSPEC [online] THE INSTITUTION OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS, STEVENAGE, GB; January 2001 (2001-01-01), OKADA K ET AL: "Statistical fatigue properties of nonferrous metals based on the statistical aspect of crack initiation and propagation behaviors", XP002797875, Database accession no. 6995702
MENG ET AL: "Prediction of optimal inspection time for structural fatigue life", INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FATIGUE, ELSEVIER, AMSTERDAM, NL, vol. 29, no. 8, 30 March 2007 (2007-03-30), pages 1516 - 1522, XP022009589, ISSN: 0142-1123, DOI: 10.1016/J.IJFATIGUE.2006.10.029
LIU ET AL: "Multiaxial fatigue reliability analysis of railroad wheels", RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND SYSTEM SAFETY, ELSEVIER APPLIED SCIENCE, GB, vol. 93, no. 3, 22 October 2007 (2007-10-22), pages 456 - 467, XP022308640, ISSN: 0951-8320, DOI: 10.1016/J.RESS.2006.12.021
ZHANG J ET AL: "A probabilistic estimation method of multiple site damage occurrence for aircraft structures", PROCEDIA ENGINEERING, ELSEVIER, AMSTERDAM, NL, vol. 2, no. 1, 1 April 2010 (2010-04-01), pages 1115 - 1124, XP027034594, ISSN: 1877-7058, [retrieved on 20100401]
DATABASE INSPEC [online] THE INSTITUTION OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS, STEVENAGE, GB; January 2001 (2001-01-01), OKADA K ET AL: "Statistical fatigue properties of nonferrous metals based on the statistical aspect of crack initiation and propagation behaviors", XP002797875, Database accession no. 6995702
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