Title:
GENERATED POWER AMOUNT PREDICTION DEVICE, GENERATED POWER AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD, GRID STABILIZATION DEVICE, AND GRID STABILIZATION METHOD
Document Type and Number:
WIPO Patent Application WO/2017/098827
Kind Code:
A1
Abstract:
The objective of the present invention is to calculate with high precision a predicted amount of generated power, even when there is insufficient record data for the amount of power generated by a generator, and even when there is little meteorological record data similar to a meteorological prediction result. This generated power amount prediction device, which is for predicting the amount of generated power in a power generation plant generating power by means of renewable energy, is equipped with: a model creation unit that, at each time for creating a model, creates a mathematical model for the generated power amount of the power generation plant from meteorological records and output records for the power generation plant; a similar record data extraction unit that obtains, as similar record data, a meteorological record similar to meteorological prediction data and the corresponding output record; a model precision calculation unit that, with respect to the multiple mathematical models from the model creation unit, calculates the precision of the mathematical model under meteorological conditions similar to the meteorological prediction data; a model selection unit that uses the precision of the models to select a mathematical model for use in prediction; and a model output prediction unit that uses the selected mathematical model to predict the power generation amount of the power generation plant.
Inventors:
KATO DAICHI (JP)
SAITO NAO (JP)
YATSU MASAHIRO (JP)
SAITO NAO (JP)
YATSU MASAHIRO (JP)
Application Number:
PCT/JP2016/081702
Publication Date:
June 15, 2017
Filing Date:
October 26, 2016
Export Citation:
Assignee:
HITACHI LTD (JP)
International Classes:
H02J3/00; H02J3/24; H02J3/38; H02J13/00
Foreign References:
| JP2014157457A | 2014-08-28 | |||
| JP2012023816A | 2012-02-02 | |||
| JP2014021555A | 2014-02-03 | |||
| JP2011200040A | 2011-10-06 |
Other References:
BERNDT, D.; CLIFFORD, J.: "Using dynamic time warping to find patterns in time series", AAAI-94 WORKSHOP ON KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY IN DATABASES
SHUICHI ADACHI: "Basics of System Identification", 2009, TOKYO DENKI UNIVERSITY PRESS
AKIHIKO YOKOYAMA; KOJI OTA: "System Engineering of the Electric Power System Stabilization", 2014, THE INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS OF JAPAN, pages: 54 - 57
AKIHIKO YOKOYAMA; KOJI OTA: "System Engineering of the Electric Power System Stabilization", 2014, THE INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS OF JAPAN, pages: 189 - 191
See also references of EP 3389158A4
SHUICHI ADACHI: "Basics of System Identification", 2009, TOKYO DENKI UNIVERSITY PRESS
AKIHIKO YOKOYAMA; KOJI OTA: "System Engineering of the Electric Power System Stabilization", 2014, THE INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS OF JAPAN, pages: 54 - 57
AKIHIKO YOKOYAMA; KOJI OTA: "System Engineering of the Electric Power System Stabilization", 2014, THE INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS OF JAPAN, pages: 189 - 191
See also references of EP 3389158A4
Attorney, Agent or Firm:
POLAIRE I.P.C. (JP)
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