US20090173820A1 | 2009-07-09 | |||
US7511252B1 | 2009-03-31 | |||
US7411543B1 | 2008-08-12 |
CLAIMS 1. A method for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, the method comprising: obtaining or estimating guidance properties of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the guidance properties comprising at least speed and/or velocity data for the first object and a maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; determining an intercept corridor for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object using the speed and/or velocity data for the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object, the intercept corridor defining a subset of points in three- dimensional space from which is it is physically possible for the first object to intercept the area or volume containing the second object; and producing an indication of the intercept corridor. 2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the intercept corridor comprises: for each of a plurality of points in the three-dimensional space: calculating a first object heading error for the point relative to the area or volume containing the second object by applying the first object velocity data at the point; and determining whether the first object would be capable of executing a course correction at that point in space to intercept the area or volume containing the second object based at least on the first object heading error for the point, a velocity of the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object, wherein points at which a required course correction to intercept the area or volume containing the second object does not exceed the maximum lateral acceleration limit of the first object are inside the intercept corridor and points at which a required course correction to intercept the area or volume containing the second object exceeds the maximum lateral acceleration limit of the first object are outside the intercept corridor. 3. The method of claim 2, wherein determining whether the first object would be capable of executing a course correction at that point in space to intercept the area or volume containing the second object based at least on the first object heading error for the point, a velocity of the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object comprises assessing whether a radial distance from the area or volume containing the second object to that point in space is greater than or equal to a range r′ that satisfies the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: vm is first object velocity; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; φ is the heading error of the first object calculated for that point in space by applying the first object velocity data at that point space; and r′ is a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object at which the heading error φ results in a marginal miss. 4. The method of any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein: obtaining or estimating guidance properties for the first object comprises obtaining or estimating velocity data for the first object over time; and determining the intercept corridor for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object comprises updating the intercept corridor over time using the velocity data for the first object obtained over time and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object. 5. The method of claim 4, wherein updating the intercept corridor over time is performed in real time or near real time as updated velocity data is obtained during flight of the first object. 6. The method of claim 5, wherein outputting an indication of the intercept corridor comprise updating a display of the intercept corridor in real-time or near real-time as the updated velocity data is obtained during flight of the first object. 7. The method of any one of claims 1 to 6 further comprising, adapting at least one electronic countermeasure (ECM) system based on proximity of the first object to a boundary of the intercept corridor. 8. The method of claim 7, wherein: obtaining or estimating guidance properties for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object comprises: obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; and obtaining or estimating range data for the first object indicating a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object; and adapting at least one ECM system based on proximity of the first object to a boundary of the intercept corridor comprises: turning off radio frequency (RF) transmission from at least one jamming system t seconds in advance of a time at which the first object is anticipated to cross the intercept corridor boundary, responsive to observing a rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object that satisfies the following equation or an equivalent formulation: , where: is the rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the centre of the second object; vm is first object velocity; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; r′ is a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 9. The method of claim 7 or 8, wherein the at least one ECM system comprises an active jamming system onboard the second object. 10. The method of claim 9, wherein the at least one ECM system further comprises at least one active or passive offboard decoy located away from the second object. 11. The method of any one of claims 1 to 10, wherein, for determining the intercept corridor for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the area or volume containing the second object is treated as a point target having zero size. 12. The method of claim 11, wherein obtaining or estimating guidance properties for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object comprises obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the method further comprising: determining that the first object is not capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object after obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object that is equal to or greater than the rate of bearing change satisfying the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: vm is first object velocity; and amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit. 13. The method of any one of claims 1 to 10, wherein, for determining the intercept corridor for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the area or volume containing the second object is treated as a distributed target having a nonzero width protection field. 14. The method of claim 13, wherein the nonzero width protection field is notionally centered on a point target and has a width equal to 2d. 15. The method of claim 14, wherein obtaining or estimating guidance properties for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object comprises: obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; and obtaining or estimating range data for the first object indicating a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object, the method further comprising: determining that the first object is not capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object after obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object that is equal to or greater than the rate of bearing change satisfying the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: vm is first object velocity; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; and r′ is a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 16. The method of claim 14, wherein the guidance properties further comprise range data for the first object indicating a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object, the method further comprising: determining a real-time or near real-time size of the protection field based on the guidance properties including at least: - the observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; - the velocity of the first object; - the observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; and - the observed radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 17. The method of claim 16, wherein determining real-time size of the protection field based on real-time guidance properties comprises determining a value for d which satisfies the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: is the observed rate of bearing change of the first object; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; vm is the first object velocity; r′ is the observed radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 18. The method of any one of claims 1 to 17, wherein the area or volume containing the second object is one potential target of a set of multiple potential targets for the first object, the method further comprising, for each of the other potential targets of the set of multiple potential targets: determining a respective intercept corridor for the first object relative to the other potential target using the velocity data for the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; and outputting an indication of the respective intercept corridor for the other potential target. 19. The method of claim 18, wherein outputting an indication of the respective intercept corridor for each potential target of the set of multiple potential targets comprises displaying each of the intercept corridors overlaid on a display showing relative locations of the potential targets and the first object. 20. The method of any one of claims 1 to 19, wherein the first object is a guided missile. 21. The method of any one of claims 1 to 20, wherein the first object is a torpedo. 22. The method of any one of claims 1 to 20, wherein the second object is an aircraft. 23. The method of any one of claims 1 to 21, wherein the second object is a ship. 24. A method for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, the method comprising: obtaining or estimating guidance properties of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the guidance properties comprising at least: - an observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; - speed and/or velocity of the first object; and - a maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; determining whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object based on the observed rate of bearing change for the first object, the speed and/or velocity of the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; and producing an indication of a result of the determination whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object. 25. The method of claim 24, wherein obtaining or estimating the observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object comprises obtaining or estimating velocity data for the first object and determining the observed rate of bearing change using the velocity data. 26. The method of any one of claims 24 to 25, wherein, for determining whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object, the area or volume containing the second object is treated as a point target having zero size. 27. The method of claim 26, wherein determining whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object based on the observed rate of bearing change for the first object, the velocity of the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object comprises: determining that the first object is not capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object after obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object that is equal to or greater than the rate of bearing change θ^ satisfying the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: vm is first object velocity; and amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit. 28. The method of any one of claims 24 to 25, wherein, for determining whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object, the area or volume containing the second object is treated as a distributed target having a nonzero width protection field. 29. The method of claim 28, wherein the nonzero width protection field is notionally centered on a point target and has a width equal to 2d . 30. The method of claim 29, wherein the guidance properties further comprise range data for the first object indicating a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object, the method further comprising: determining that the first object is not capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object after obtaining or estimating an observed rate of bearing change for the first object that is equal to or greater than the rate of bearing change θ^ satisfying the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: vm is first object velocity; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; and r′ is a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 31. The method of claim 29, wherein the guidance properties further comprise range data for the first object indicating a radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object, the method further comprising: determining a real-time or near real-time size of the protection field based on the guidance properties including at least: - the observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; - the velocity of the first object; - the observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; and - the observed radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 32. The method of claim 31, wherein determining real-time size of the protection field based on real-time guidance properties comprises determining a value for d which satisfies the following equation or an equivalent formulation: where: is the observed rate of bearing change of the first object; amax is the first object maximum lateral acceleration limit; vm is the first object velocity; r′ is the observed radial range between the first object and the area or volume containing the second object. 33. The method of any one of claims 24 to 32, wherein: obtaining or estimating guidance properties for the first object comprises obtaining or estimating updated guidance properties over time during flight of the first object; and determining whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object comprises updating the determination over time using the updated guidance properties obtained over time during flight of the first object. 34. The method of claim 33, wherein updating the determination is performed in real-time or near real-time as updated guidance properties are obtained during flight of the first object. 35. The method of any one of claims 24 to 34, wherein the first object is a guided missile. 36. The method of any one of claims 24 to 35, wherein the first object is a torpedo. 37. The method of any one of claims 24 to 34, wherein the second object is an aircraft. 38. The method of any one of claims 24 to 35, wherein the second object is a ship. 39. An engagement monitoring and/or management system for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, the system comprising at least one processor configured with instructions that when executed implement a method according to any one of claims 1 to 38. 40. An apparatus for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, the apparatus comprising: an engagement monitoring and/or management system comprising at least one processor configured with instructions to: obtain or estimate guidance properties of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the guidance properties comprising at least speed and/or velocity data for the first object and a maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; determine an intercept corridor for the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object using the speed and/or velocity data for the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object, the intercept corridor defining a subset of points in three-dimensional space from which is it is physically possible for the first object to intercept the area or volume containing the second object; and produce an indication of the intercept corridor. 41. An apparatus for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, the apparatus comprising: an engagement monitoring and/or management system comprising at least one processor configured with instructions to: obtain or estimate guidance properties of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object, the guidance properties comprising at least: - an observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; - speed and/or velocity of the first object; and - a maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; determine whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object based on the observed rate of bearing change for the first object, the speed and/or velocity of the first object and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object; and produce an indication of a result of the determination whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object. |
eqn (35) [94] Eqn (35) reduces to the following expression, for t = 0: eqn (36) [95] Eqn (36) is consistent with eqn (11), i.e. bearing rate for zero protection field width. Note that the solution of eqn (35) can be either complex or real, depending on the square root term in the denominator. The solution is completely real providing the following inequality is satisfied: eqn (37) [96] The bearing rate for jammer RF turn-off (eqn (35)) is completely real only if the radial range between the jammer sensor and the missile is less than twice the missile minimum turn radius. [97] Interestingly, the solution to eqn (35) can in principle be converted from complex to real at a given range by increasing the closing velocity v m between the missile and the jammer sensor. Although missile velocity cannot be affected by the jammer, it is possible to increase v m by heading toward the missile; if the targeted platform heads directly toward the missile, the value of v m becomes the sum of the missile velocity and the platform velocity. [98] Eqn (35) may have a tactical application in airborne applications in which a maneuvering or maneuverable aircraft is under attack by an anti-air missile. For example, if the protection field is sufficiently small, as might be the case for a physically small target such as an aircraft, then depending on the user’s requirements the simplest version of the soft kill equation may provide a good enough assessment of the soft kill state of the missile. i.e. there might be negligible benefit in including the correction term for the physical width of the protection field. The soft kill equation could also or instead be used to plan defensive maneuvers by an aircraft under attack by an anti-air missile. For example, this could involve either the point target version of the equation (eqn 36) or distributed target versions of the equation (eqn 35). A defensive plan is possible because the shape and position of the intercept corridor can be determined by missile’s closing speed, its maximum lateral acceleration, and the velocity vector of the missile relative to the aircraft velocity vector. Since the closing speed and relative velocity vector can be changed by intentional aircraft maneuvers, it may be possible in theory to create an aircraft flight plan to cause the missile to leave the intercept corridor for example as soon as possible, or at a predetermined time and location in 3D-space. Which equation is used depends on the trade-off between processing speed and the user’s requirements for confidence and accuracy in determining whether or when missile soft kill has occurred. [99] Eqn (35) gives the bearing rate of the missile as seen by the jammer t seconds before the missile crosses the missile intercept corridor boundary for zero protection field width, assuming that the missile flies a straight line trajectory. Note that at time t = 0 the missile crosses the missile intercept corridor boundary; t must be negative in eqn (35) to give the bearing rate before the missile crosses the missile intercept corridor boundary. [100] Eqn (35) assumes that the missile flies in a straight line tangential to a circle which just barely touches an edge of the protection field. In this condition, the missile has by definition reached the intercept corridor boundary. Looking backward in time from this point, if the time step is sufficiently small then the missile flight trajectory can be approximated by a straight line. Although the missile flight path is not generally known, the straight-line approximation is best if the missile really is flying in a straight line, and worst of the missile is in a max g turn. If the straight line flight hypothesis is valid or sufficiently valid, then eqn (35) can be used to calculate the observed missile bearing rate when the missile is t sec from crossing the intercept corridor boundary. If t is smaller than the latency of the missile’s guidance system to correct a heading error, then it may be possible to cause a missile miss by for example turning off the jammer at this moment, t sec before the missile reaches the boundary. If the jammer is unintentionally providing guidance information to the missile, then turning off the jammer will deny the missile guidance information when it is close to the Intercept Corridor boundary. [101] Eqn (35) therefore determines the bearing rate at which AJTO should be applied, i.e. when the jammer should be turned off. How successful this is in a given engagement may depend on the choice of t, and the real-world validity of the assumption that the missile flight path is well-approximated by a straight line over t seconds. [102] A typical calculation can be used to illustrate the application of eqn (35), and give a quantitative comparison of bearing rate at soft kill with bearing rate at AJTO. Consider the following parameters: v m = 300 m/s a max = 2.0 gravities t = -2.0 sec r′ = 4000 m [103] According to eqn (35), the missile bearing rate as seen by the jammer 2 sec. before it crosses the missile intercept corridor boundary, assuming no correction of flight trajectory, is 1.449 degrees/sec. If the missile were to cross the missile intercept corridor boundary, the observed bearing rate would be 1.874 degrees/sec (eqn (11)). Note that because eqn (11) is formulated for zero protection field width, there is no range dependence on bearing rate at the missile intercept corridor, though there is range dependence in eqn (35). According to the inequality of eqn (37), the maximum range at which there is a real solution to eqn (35) is 9.174 km. If the ship velocity is 20 kt (37 kph, 10.3 m/sec) and the ship heading is aligned with the inbound missile, this range could be increased by 622 m to 9796 m. [104] In some implementations, the choice of time delay t may be determined taking into account various engagement parameters/guidance properties, such as overall missile guidance loop time constant, likely reacquisition time, scenario specifics, maximum lateral acceleration, desired soft kill range, desired miss distance statistics, etc. Application to Multiple Targets Case [105] Missile intercept corridor concepts and mathematical formulations can be applied to engagements where there is more than one potential target or emitter present. In this case, the probability of missile soft kill (P sk ) is inherently associated with the identity of an emitter, because a missile flight trajectory which comprises a hit for one emitter (missile successfully intercepts emitter), comprises a miss for all other emitters in the scenario. If there are multiple emitters in an engagement scenario then the P sk for a single missile must be expressed for each emitter. This means that an emitter identity is implicit in the missile intercept corridor equation. [106] The application of the concept of a missile intercept corridor to multiple ship platforms is shown qualitatively in fig. 10. During a missile attack in which two or more ships are present, it is possible to classify whether soft kill has occurred for each ship, when soft kill occurred, and possibly to identify critical points in the engagement where soft kill transitions happen - or can happen - for each ship. Non-limiting examples of uses for this information could include: (a) selecting and/or controlling the deployment of countermeasures to maximize the probability of survival for any or all ships, (b) preventing misallocation of electronic warfare (EW) resources to a missile which is no longer a threat, (c) in the event of a stream or barrage attack by multiple missiles, prioritizing the missiles in terms of the threat they pose to individual ships, or (d) developing a rule-based system for self- or group-deployment of countermeasures for self or group defense, including for example the following elements: (i) the time-to-impact for each ship for which soft kill has not yet occurred, (ii) the quantity and location of available EW resources, (iii) an automatically generated, automatically coordinated and automatically executed plan for self- or group-defense, including 1) a schedule of soft kill and/or hard kill for each missile, 2) the selection and scheduling of soft kill and/or hard kill weapon deployment, 3) the real-time sharing of information about actions taken by each ship for coordination confirmation purposes, and 4) the real-time sharing of real-time observations of the missile attack viewed from multiple observation points to create a confirmed tactical picture against which the defense plan acts. (iv) real-time effectiveness assessment so the self- or group-defense plan can be adaptive in real-time according to measured success, or lack of success, at each step in the defense plan. [107] Consider a missile attack against a fleet of ships. It is reasonable to assume that the effectiveness of a countermeasure deployed by one ship in the fleet is dependent on (a) the actions of other member ships in the fleet, and (b) the ship which is initially targeted by the missile. This means that optimization of the effectiveness of ship defense against missile attack when there is more than one ship present thus involves selecting countermeasures and tactics to optimize a survival matrix, where dimensions of the matrix are determined by the separate or combination conditions under which the P sk of each ship is to be calculated. The elements of the matrix are conditional probabilities. Although the matrix may be multi-dimensional, it can be illustrated in two dimensions by considering P sk for each of three ships given that a particular one of the three is initially targeted by the missile. The form of the matrix is shown below: Table 1: Example Conditional Probability of Survival Matrix Other Soft Kill Definitions [108] Although the present disclosure has focused primarily on soft kill defined by a heading error which is physically unrecoverable, based on the missile’s aerodynamic design (e.g., missile agility), the embodiments described herein could also or instead relate to definitions of soft kill based on heading errors which are functionally unrecoverable, rather than physically unrecoverable, from the perspective of an aerial or nautical weapon’s other design features, e.g., the specific design of the missile seeker and/or autopilot. For example, this elaboration may be relevant in instances in which a missile develops a large heading error at a long range, and while the missile may be physically agile enough to intercept the target (e.g., the range may be greater than the diameter of a circle inscribed by a maximum-g turn for the missile), the engagement may be outside the missile’s design envelope (e.g., in principle a missile could fly in a tightest-possible circle and depart). [109] Several non-limiting examples of possible criteria for defining a functionally unrecoverable heading error are presented below, for illustration. Untrackable Target [110] If the target is outside the field of view of the seeker such that the target cannot be acquired by the seeker. In this case soft kill has been successful because suitable guidance cannot be restored, even though the missile may be physically agile enough to correct its heading error. Ill-Conditioned Guidance Loop [111] Consider the case in which the seeker angle tracks the primary target using a sidelobe track point. Although such tracking may provide target angle information, the associated sight line rate estimate may be uncalibrated for a Proportional Navigation autopilot designed to work with the boresight copolar descriminator slope. In this case, soft kill may be defined as successful, depending on the interplay of several other variables. Target Rejection [112] Consider a missile designed to reject decoys. If the ship can produce a response in the seeker which causes the seeker to classify the ship as an invalid target, soft kill has been successful. Alternate Target Selection [113] Consider a missile designed to monitor two or more potential targets, and to home on the highest priority one. If an induced heading error can cause the missile to alter its target priority and home on a different target, soft kill has been successful with respect to the initial primary target. Zero/Low Probability of Intercept [114] It may be possible to define a heading error for one or more specific missile designs, such that the probability of target reacquisition and/or target intercept is effectively zero. It is reasonable to assume that some or all missiles might incorporate an own-platform safety feature by which the missile self-destructs if it develops an absolute heading greater than a threshold value. [115] This option addresses cases in which the missile develops a maximum-g turn at long range, i.e. at a range greater than the diameter of a maximum-g turn. Excessive Flight Time [116] If the missile flight time required to intercept the target exceeds the design limitations, then soft kill has occurred. This possibility logically covers the case of a maximum-g turn at long range, i.e. outside the diameter of a maximum-g turn; if the missile is required to fly a complete maximum-g circuit, or execute a maximum-g zig-zag before re-engaging the target, the flight distance may exceed the missile design specifications. This criterion is illustrated in figure 11. Example Apparatus [117] Figure 12 illustrates an example of an apparatus for assessing ability of a maneuverable first object to intercept an area or volume containing a second object, according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The apparatus includes an engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 operably connected to an ECM system 110. The ECM system 110 is operably connected to a bearing measurement device 112 and a range measurement device 114. [118] In some embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may be configured to determine, based on guidance properties of a first object relative to an area or volume containing a second object, whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object. In such embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may be further configured to produce an indication of a result of the determination. In other embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may also or instead be configured to use the guidance properties of the first object to determine an intercept corridor defining a subset of points in three-dimensional space from which is it is physically possible for the first object to intercept the area or volume containing the second object. In such embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may be further configured to produce an indication of the intercept corridor. For example, as shown in figure 12, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may include a soft kill calculator 102 and a soft kill result display 104, wherein the soft kill calculator 102 is configured to determine whether the first object is capable of intercepting the area or volume containing the second object and/or to determine an intercept corridor and produce an output that enables the soft kill result display 104 to display an indication of the result. [119] In some cases, the guidance properties include at least: an observed rate of bearing change of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; speed and/or velocity of the first object; and a maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object. In some cases, the guidance properties may also or instead include at least: an observed heading error of the first object relative to the area or volume containing the second object; speed and/or velocity of the first object; and the maximum lateral acceleration limit for the first object. [120] The ECM system 110 is configured to radiate signals with the intention to render a hostile weapon system ineffective. For example, the ECM system 110 may include an active jamming system onboard the second object. For example, the ECM system 110 may be an ECM system configured to counter missile systems. In some embodiments, the ECM system 110 may further include at least one active or passive offboard decoy located away from the second object. In some embodiments, the ECM system 110 is configured to track the bearing and/or range of an object using the bearing measurement device 112 and/or the range measurement device 114. [121] In some embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 is configured to obtain or estimate the guidance properties of the first object based on information received from the ECM system 110. For example, in some embodiments the soft kill calculator 102 may be configured to obtain or estimate the guidance properties based on bearing information and/or range information gathered by the ECM system 110 using the bearing measurement device 112 and/or the range measurement device 114. [122] In some embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 is configured to obtain or estimate guidance properties for the first object over time and update the intercept corridor over time using the updated guidance properties. In some cases, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 is configured to update the intercept corridor in real time or near real time as updated guidance properties, such as updated velocity data, are obtained during flight of the first object. [123] In some embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 is configured to adapt the ECM system 110 based on proximity of the first object to a boundary of the intercept corridor. For example, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may be configured to turn off RF transmission from at least one jamming system of the ECM system 110 t seconds in advance of a time at which the first object is anticipated to cross an intercept corridor boundary, as described earlier. [124] In some embodiments, the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 may be partially or wholly integrated with the ECM system 110. For example, in some embodiments the soft kill calculator 102 may be integrated with the ECM system 110 in the form of software stored in memory forming part of the ECM system, and run by a processor forming part of the ECM system, possibly with some hardware additional hardware and/or firmware. [125] In general, hardware, firmware, components which execute software, or some combination thereof, might be used in implementing the functionality of the engagement monitoring and/or management system 100 and/or the ECM system 110. Electronic devices that might be suitable for implementing such functionality include, among others, microprocessors, microcontrollers, Programmable Logic Devices (PLDs), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), and other types of “intelligent” integrated circuits. Software could be stored in memory for execution. The memory could include one or more physical memory devices, including any of various types of solid-state memory devices and/or memory devices with movable or even removable storage media. Conclusion [126] The present disclosure has defined a quantitative meaning for the term soft kill by introducing the concept of a guaranteed missile miss. This concept is based on limitations of missile agility and heading errors induced by angle deception ECM. The angle deception may be caused by either onboard or offboard countermeasures. The concept of a protection field width has been introduced as part of the definition of soft kill, i.e. soft kill is defined as an instance of missile engagement in which the missile fails to pass within the protection field, notionally centered on the target. [127] Mathematical relationships have been described which define the range at which a given heading error is unrecoverable, for the missile to pass through the protection field. Additionally, a mathematical relationship has been defined from which the observed rate of change of missile bearing is related to the range at which the missile is unable to intercept the protection field. If the protection field collapses to a point, the bearing rate required for a missile miss is independent of missile range. The bearing rates for soft kill are expected to be of the order of 2-3 degrees/sec, and are assessed to be measurable using existing technology. The concept of anticipatory jammer turn-off (AJTO) has been introduced, and expressions have been derived to control jammer turn-off based on observed missile bearing rate and acceleration in order to cause the missile to cross the missile intercept corridor boundary. [128] The concept of soft kill has been shown to imply an identity in the sense that soft kill means that a particular target or platform survived a missile attack. In cases where there is more than one potential target for the missile, a different probability of soft kill may be calculated for each target using the missile intercept corridor equations. Optimization of the survival of a set of targets requires optimization of conditional probabilities in a survivability matrix. [129] It may be possible to apply the concepts and mathematical formulations in the following ways: (i) to dynamically assess missile soft kill in real time during a missile engagement, (ii) to form the basis of adaptive closed-loop control of an active onboard jammer, (iii) to determine the best moment to turn off an active onboard jammer, (iv) to confirm soft kill for a protection of a third party ship, (v) to calculate the closest possible approach of the missile based on real-time observable engagement parameters, e.g., determine the value of d (fig.2) which satisfies eqn. (21) for the observed bearing rate and missile range, (vi) to apply mathematical relationships related to confirmation of soft kill through an expert system to enhance ship survivability by real-time engagement management and management and conservation of ship borne softkill and hardkill resources, (vii) to define different mechanisms of soft kill, (viii) select and/or control the deployment of countermeasures to maximize the probability of survival for any or all ships, (ix) prevent misallocation of EW resources to a missile which is no longer a threat, (x) in the event of a stream or barrage attack by multiple missiles, prioritize the missiles in terms of the threat they pose to individual ships, or (xi) develop a rule-based system for self- or group-deployment of countermeasures for self or group defense, including for example the following elements: (a) the time-to-impact for each ship for which soft kill has not yet occurred, (b) the quantity and location of available EW resources, (c) an automatically generated, automatically coordinated and automatically executed plan for self- or group-defense, including 1) a schedule of soft kill and/or hard kill for each missile, 2) the selection and scheduling of soft kill and/or hard kill weapon deployment, 3) the real-time sharing of information about actions taken by each ship for coordination confirmation purposes, and 4) the real-time sharing of real-time observations of the missile attack viewed from multiple observation points to create a confirmed tactical picture against which the defense plan acts. (d) real-time effectiveness assessment so the self- or group-defense plan can be adaptive in real-time according to measured success, or lack of success, at each step in the defense plan. [130] Although the present disclosure has focused primarily on soft kill defined by a heading error which is physically unrecoverable, based on the missile’s aerodynamic design, the embodiments described herein could also or instead relate to definitions of soft kill based on heading errors which are functionally unrecoverable, from the perspective of an aerial or nautical weapon’s other design features. This elaboration may be relevant in instances in which a missile develops a large heading error at long range, and while the missile may be physically agile enough to intercept the target, the engagement may be outside its design envelope, for example. [131] Furthermore, although many of the examples described above relate primarily to protection of ships from aerial attack by anti-ship missiles (ASMs), the concepts underlying the embodiments described herein could also or instead be applied to other types of protection scenarios, such as the protection of ships from nautical weapons (e.g., torpedoes), or protection of aircraft from aerial weapons (e.g., air-to-air missiles or surface-to-air missiles) in air-to-air and/or surface-to-air attack scenarios. [132] The inventive concepts disclosed herein are not limited in their application to the details of construction and the arrangement of the components set forth in the description or illustrated in the drawings. The inventive concepts disclosed herein are capable of other embodiments or of being practiced or carried out in various ways. Also, it is to be understood that the phraseology and terminology employed herein is for the purpose of description and should not be regarded as limiting the inventive concepts disclosed and claimed herein in any way. [133] Numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a more thorough understanding of the inventive concepts. However, it will be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art that the inventive concepts within the instant disclosure may be practiced without these specific details. In other instances, well-known features have not been described in detail to avoid unnecessarily complicating the instant disclosure. [134] As used herein, the terms "comprises," "comprising," "includes," "including," "has," "having" or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a nonexclusive inclusion. For example, a composition, a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements is not necessarily limited to only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherently present therein. [135] Unless expressly stated to the contrary, "or" refers to an inclusive or and not to an exclusive or. For example, a condition A or B is satisfied by anyone of the following: A is true (or present) and B is false (or not present), A is false (or not present) and B is true (or present), and both A and B are true (or present). An inclusive or may be understood as being the equivalent to: at least one of condition A or B. [136] In addition, use of the "a" or "an" are employed to describe elements and components of the embodiments herein. This is done merely for convenience and to give a general sense of the inventive concepts. This description should be read to include one or at least one and the singular also includes the plural unless it is obvious that it is meant otherwise. [137] Any reference to "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" means that a particular element, feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one embodiment. The appearances of the phrase "in one embodiment" in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment. [138] Further, use of the term “plurality” is meant to convey “more than one” unless expressly stated to the contrary. [139] Circuitry, as used herein, may be analog and/or digital, components, or one or more suitably programmed microprocessors and associated hardware and software, or hardwired logic. Also, "components" may perform one or more functions. The term "component," may include hardware, such as a processor, an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or a field programmable gate array (FPGA), or a combination of hardware and software. Software includes one or more computer executable instructions that when executed by one or more component cause the component to perform a specified function. It should be understood that the algorithms described herein are stored on one or more non-transitory memory. Exemplary non-transitory memory includes random access memory, read only memory, flash memory or the like. Such non-transitory memory may be electrically based or optically based. [140] As used herein the terms "approximately," "about," "substantially" and variations thereof are intended to include not only the exact value qualified by the term, but to also include some slight deviations therefrom, such as deviations caused by measuring error, manufacturing tolerances, wear and tear on components or structures, stress exerted on structures, and combinations thereof, for example. For example, as used herein, the term “substantially” means that the subsequently described parameter, event, or circumstance completely occurs or that the subsequently described parameter, event, or circumstance occurs to a great extent or degree. For example, the term “substantially” means that the subsequently described parameter, event, or circumstance occurs at least 90% of the time, or at least 91%, or at least 92%, or at least 93%, or at least 94%, or at least 95%, or at least 96%, or at least 97%, or at least 98%, or at least 99%, of the time, or means that the dimension or measurement is within at least 90%, or at least 91%, or at least 92%, or at least 93%, or at least 94%, or at least 95%, or at least 96%, or at least 97%, or at least 98%, or at least 99%, of the referenced dimension or measurement.