To provide an immediate estimation method of a destruction area of a large earthquake, which can improve stability of evaluation of the destruction area of the earthquake by dividing measurement points of seismometers to be used into a plurality of groups and using only data of a group close to an evaluation point for each evaluation point.
An evaluation area around an earthquake is determined (S1), measurement points in the evaluation area are divided into subnets (S2), an arbitrary evaluation point in the evaluation area is selected (S3), a plurality of subnets having distances close to the evaluation point are selected (S4), and when the evaluation point is set as an earthquake center, seismic intensity magnitude and a minimum estimated residual minimizing a seismic intensity estimated residual of each subnet are found out (S5). An average estimated residual of the plurality of subnets is applied to the evaluation point (S6), an average estimated residual of all the evaluation points in the evaluation area is found out (S7), and an area in which the average estimated residual does not exceed a previously determined threshold is decided as a destruction area (S8).
JPN6014047414; 山本 俊六: '"断層の面的広がりを考慮した即時震度推定手法の改良"' 日本地球惑星科学連合大会予稿集 , 2009, Ｙ２３０-００６, 日本地球惑星科学連合
JPN6014047415; 山本 俊六: '"断層の面的広がりを考慮した緊急地震速報のための即時震度推定手法"' 日本地球惑星科学連合大会予稿集 , 2008, Ｓ１４６-Ｐ００４
JPN6014047416; 山本 俊六: '震度分布を利用した巨大地震の破壊域の即時推定' 日本地震学会秋季大会講演予稿集 Ｖｏｌ．２０１１, 20111001, ｐｐ．５３
Makoto Kawai