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Title:
FAILURE WARNING AND ANALYSIS METHOD FOR RESERVOIR DISPATCHING RULES UNDER EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Document Type and Number:
WIPO Patent Application WO/2022/135265
Kind Code:
A1
Abstract:
The present invention relates to the technical field of reservoir dispatching, and provides a failure warning and analysis method for reservoir dispatching rules under effects of climate change, comprising the following steps: generating multiple groups of simulated runoff series according to air temperature and precipitation prediction information, a hydrological model and a stochastic simulation method under future climate change conditions; obtaining, on the basis of current reservoir dispatching rules, multiple groups of corresponding annual benefit samples; classifying reservoir dispatching annual benefits on the basis of hydrological year types, to obtain classified reservoir dispatching annual benefits; selecting, by means of parameter estimation and a goodness-of-fit test, an optimal probability distribution function suitable for the classified reservoir dispatching annual benefits; determining, on the basis of the optimal probability distribution function and an acceptable risk level, a classification risk-based warning threshold by means of inverse cumulative distribution calculation; and identifying, by means of a probability change point analysis method, the failure warning time of the current reservoir dispatching rules under the future climate change conditions. By means of the described steps, a prompt for the time point when the reservoir dispatching rules are changed can be provided.

Inventors:
ZHANG WEI (CN)
DAI HUICHAO (CN)
LIU ZHIWU (CN)
LIU PAN (CN)
LIU RUIKUO (CN)
Application Number:
PCT/CN2021/138718
Publication Date:
June 30, 2022
Filing Date:
December 16, 2021
Export Citation:
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Assignee:
CHINA THREE GORGES CORP (CN)
UNIV WUHAN (CN)
International Classes:
G06Q10/06
Foreign References:
CN112819293A2021-05-18
CN110276104A2019-09-24
CN103049671A2013-04-17
CN107330538A2017-11-07
US20200090285A12020-03-19
Other References:
LIU PAN, ZHANG XIAOQI;DENG CHAO;FENG MAOYUAN;GAO SHIDA;ZHANG WEI: "Study on Key Technology for Adaptive Operation of Reservoir", YANGTZE RIVER, vol. 50, no. 2, 28 February 2019 (2019-02-28), pages 1 - 5+12, XP055946608, ISSN: 1001-4179, DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2019.02.001
BORGOMEO EDOARDO, HALL JIM W., FUNG FAI, WATTS GLENN, COLQUHOUN KEITH, LAMBERT CHRIS: "Riskā€based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties", WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 50, no. 8, 1 August 2014 (2014-08-01), US , pages 6850 - 6873, XP055946610, ISSN: 0043-1397, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015558
Attorney, Agent or Firm:
YICHANG THREE GORGES PATENT (CN)
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