PURPOSE: To improve the estimation accuracy by providing a function resolving the sales data of the season merchandise based on the season fluctuation and combining the higher linear regression analysis and information amount reference AIC.
CONSTITUTION: A season merchandise demand estimation system 102 inputs sales achievement data 101 and passes it to a season merchandise abnormal value pickup system 103. A 12-month moving average processing function 104 performs the 12-month moving average processing. An optimal degree selection function 105 calculates the information amount reference AIC and selects the good AIC from among the information amount reference AIC and sets it as the optimal degree when the degree counter exceeds the upper limit value. A season adjustment processing function 106 performs the season adjustment processing and obtains the time series data extracting the inclination fluctuation and the irregular fluctuation. A regression analysis function 107 with the reliability limit performs the processing applying the regression formula with reliability limit to the time series data showing the inclination fluctuation and the irregular fluctuation. An abnormal value function 108 inputs a table 109 to a demand estimation 110 and obtains data.
KAWANAMI KUNIO
ONODA MITSUYOSHI
TAKADA KOHEI
NAKADA HIDEKI
TENMA TADASHI
ITABASHI MASABUMI
HITACHI SYST ENG KK