To provide a demand prediction method and a demand prediction program capable of properly predicting a demand for a commodity.
A management computer 21 applies a growth model to an accumulation amount transition of an order acceptance to compute a trend function to an order acceptance result. The management computer 21 computes a transition of a differential between the order acceptance result and the trend function. The management computer 21 finds periodic conformity intensity of the differential transition by means of a periodogram. When the periodic property is determined on the basis of the conformity intensity, a quadratic Sin model constructed by including a quadratic function and a trigonometric function is applied to the differential transition between the order acceptance result and the trend curve for computing a periodic function. The management computer 21 uses a function generated by synthesizing the trend function and the periodic function to predict a demand.
COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO&NCIPI
Hirohisa Hirono
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JP9160997A | ||||
JP2002149819A |
Makoto Onda