PURPOSE: To provide a sales quantity predicting method capable of reducing the predicting job load on a planner in a planning job and also of realizing the high precision conversion of sales quantity prediction and the maintenance property improvement of a prediction model.
CONSTITUTION: An abnormal value due to an unexpected factor is picked-up and corrected from time sequence data concerning the sales quantity actual result of a commercial product so as to generate corrected time-sequential data (S31), a season index and trend value sequence are picked-up from corrected time-sequential data (S32), the fluctuation quantity of trend value sequence between trend values is calculated so as to generate trend value fluctuation quantity sequence (S33), the extrapolation value of trend value fluctuation quantity sequence in a commercial product sales quantity predicting period is calculated (S35) and the prediction sales quantity of the commercial product in the sales quantity predicting period is calculate from a trend value fluctuation quantity predicting value and the season index (S36).
TENMA TADASHI
ITABASHI MASABUMI
ONODA MITSUYOSHI
YAMAZAKI YOSHIO
HITACHI SYST ENG KK