Title:
METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR DETERMINING DEVIATION AND RELIABILITY OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST
Document Type and Number:
WIPO Patent Application WO/2023/220934
Kind Code:
A1
Abstract:
The present invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecast analysis. Provided are a method and system for determining the deviation and the reliability of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast, the method comprising the following steps: acquiring hydrometeorological ensemble forecast precipitation data and corresponding observed precipitation data; pre-processing the forecast precipitation data and the corresponding observed precipitation data, so as to obtain forecast precipitation data and observed precipitation data that are present in a target spatial area and aligned in a temporal dimension; performing a mean homogeneity test on the pre-processed forecast precipitation data and the pre-processed observed precipitation data on the basis of a bootstrap method, wherein if it is determined from the test that the forecast precipitation data and the observed precipitation data have equal means, a forecast has no systematic deviation, otherwise, the forecast has a systematic deviation, and it is determined that the forecast is a low-reliability forecast; and for the forecast having no systematic deviation, performing a variance homogeneity test on the forecast precipitation data and the observed precipitation data on the basis of the bootstrap method, wherein if it is determined from the test that the forecast precipitation data and the observed precipitation data have equal variances, it is determined that the forecast is a high-reliability forecast, otherwise, it is determined that the forecast is a low-reliability forecast.
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Inventors:
ZHAO TONGTIEGANG (CN)
XIONG SHAOTANG (CN)
XIONG SHAOTANG (CN)
Application Number:
PCT/CN2022/093390
Publication Date:
November 23, 2023
Filing Date:
May 17, 2022
Export Citation:
Assignee:
UNIV SUN YAT SEN (CN)
International Classes:
G06Q10/06; G06F17/18; G06Q50/26
Foreign References:
| CN113917568A | 2022-01-11 | |||
| CN110531054A | 2019-12-03 | |||
| CN108763828A | 2018-11-06 | |||
| CN112948649A | 2021-06-11 | |||
| CN112215299A | 2021-01-12 | |||
| CN111260111A | 2020-06-09 |
Attorney, Agent or Firm:
YOGO PATENT AND TRADEMARK AGENCY LIMITED COMPANY (CN)
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