To provide an aqueous curable resin composition, which is excellent in a film forming property at low temperature even when stored for a long period of time, and which can form a cured coating film excellent in durability such as crack resistance after formation of the coating film.

The aqueous curable coating composition includes a composite resin (ABC), in which a functional group of a polysiloxane segment (B) existing in a composite resin (AB) formed by bonding a polymer segment (A) having a neutralized acid group to the polysiloxane segment (B), is bonded to a polysiloxane segment (C) originating from a condensation product of an alkyltrialkoxysilane of an alkyl group 1-3C via a silicon-oxygen bond. In the aqueous curable coating composition, the polymer segment (A) is a copolymer formed by polymerizing, with a multistage reaction: an ethylenically unsaturated compound (a11) constituted of, as an essential ingredient, a vinyl monomer including a hydrolyzable silyl group and/or a silanol group; and an acid group containing ethylenically unsaturated compound (a12). A method for producing the composition is also claimed.